Tim Floyd Standings Update — California is Surging

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February 26, 2013 by Marshall Kelner

By Marshall Kelner

A few weeks ago, I re-introduced the famous Tim Floyd Standings to this blog. Now, with two weeks left in Pac-12 play, it’s time for an update. At the midway point of the conference season, the real standings and the Floyd standings were identical. Therefore, it was hard to see what they really showed. That is not the case anymore. Here are the newly updated standings:

Real Standings

Floyd Standings

Arizona (11-4)

California (+4)

Oregon (11-4)

Arizona (+3)

UCLA (10-4)

Oregon (+3)

California (10-5)

UCLA (+3)

Arizona State (9-6)

Colorado (+1)

Colorado (8-6)

Washington (+1)

USC (7-7)

Arizona State (0)

Stanford (7-8)

USC (0)

Washington (7-8)

Stanford (0)

Utah (3-11)

Utah (-4)

Oregon State (3-12)

Washington State (-5)

Washington State (2-13)

Oregon State (-6)

As you can see, Cal has surged to the top with their impressive run as of late. They have won five straight games, seven of eight, and eight of ten. That’s how you get it done. Ever since losing their first home game to Washington on January 9, the Golden Bears have won five straight at Haas Pavilion.

One great thing about the Floyd standings is that they make it easier to predict the winner of the conference, especially this late in the season. Since you can only gain points on the road, you would think from looking at the standings that Cal has most of its remaining games at home. And you would be right. The Bears host Utah, Colorado, and Stanford to close out conference play. They ended up 5-4 on the road, which is exactly the formula that Floyd laid out when he created his standings. Protect your home floor and play about .500 ball on the road. Cal has done that, which is why I think they are going to win the Pac-12.

When USC lost to Cal a couple weeks ago up in Berkeley, people were upset but didn’t realize the full impact of that game. The winner actually had a shot to win the league, and Cal has cashed in on that. If USC had won, and then used that momentum and found a way to beat UCLA last Sunday, they would be at +2 right now.

The problem for the Trojans during the conference season hasn’t been on the road. It’s been  winning consistently at Galen Center. USC is 4-3 at home with two tough games on the horizon this week against Arizona and ASU. That is unacceptable. Meanwhile, they have held their own on the road with a decent 3-4 mark.

Let’s take a look at the remaining schedule for the four main title contenders:

 

Arizona: @USC, @UCLA, vs. ASU

Oregon: vs. Oregon State, @Colorado, @ Utah

UCLA: vs. ASU, vs. Arizona, @Washington State, @ Washington

Cal: vs. Utah, vs. Colorado, vs. Stanford

 

I think it’s hard to argue that California won’t win the league. The only thing working against them is that they are a game back, but they have the easiest remaining schedule of the contenders and it isn’t even close. The three other teams all have two more road games, and the way things have gone for visiting teams this year in the Pac-12, that’s not a good omen.

USC’s loss to Cal not only was a major blow to the Trojans. It also put Cal on a path to potentially win the Pac-12.

Thank you, Tim Floyd.

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Photo By Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

 

 

 

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